The midterms are coming down to the wire and it is a dead heat. The polls are back predicting a small blue wave in the House and for the GOP to prevail in the Senate but it is not a done deal by any means.
Turnout will be key and early voting numbers are huge – literally stunning the experts as we reach unprecedented numbers of energized citizens actually engaging in democracy.
Look, win or lose America wins when it’s citizens participate – for too long voting levels have been anemic. Trump was able to motivate large numbers on nonvoters and rode that way into the White House.
Will they come out again and vote for the GOP when Trump is not on the ticket? Trump for his part is making the election a referendum on his first two years and is hoping his base responds. The Democrats have seen high energy and big numbers of early voters and the media has gone into their typical frenzy touting these as signs of a blue wave.
It is possible they are correct but Maria Bartiromo just discovered some fascinating numbers during an interview with Florida Gov candidate Ron DeSantis. Look, the media and the experts are trying to make sense of these early numbers and they are twisting and turning to find meaning but it is all a smokescreen.
All we know about the early vote is the party of the voter and people don’t vote straight party lines so they are nearly useless.
That said, we can look historically at how the early vote corresponds and when you do that the Democrats turn white with fright. For as DeSantis makes clear – the Democrats always lead in the early vote in Florida and the GOP always plays catchup.
Not this year. For the first time in Flordia history, the GOP won the early vote DeSantis told Maria:
“We’re not trailing in actual people who have voted Maria. More than half the vote has been cast. If you look at early and absentee votes Republicans are leading for the first time ever at this stage. I mean Donald Trump was down 175,000 Republican votes going into election day in 2016. He won by about 175,000. We are going to be going into election day with Republicans in the first time in Florida history up going into election day.”